Monday, April 27, 2009

updated series odds

Eventually I want this table to be on a sidebar, but until then I'll just keep updating it with new posts.

teamgames
won
% chance of
winning series
frequency
CLE4100.033
DET00.00
BOS263.6411
CHI236.36
ORL260.0010
PHI240.00
ATL140.0020
MIA260.00
LAL397.7344
UTH12.27
DEN291.6784
NOR18.33
SAS118.1822
DAL381.82
POR118.1822
HOU381.82

The most influential game over the weekend was Miami winning Game 3 of their series. While the more difficult task may have been winning Game 2 in Atlanta, coming off that win and winning Game 3 bumped them up to a 60% chance of winning the series from 31.11% before that game. After a team without home court advantage wins Game 2 to tie the series they are likely to lose Game 3 (55.56% chance) even though Game 3 is on their home floor.

Other notes:
  • Orlando swings the series back in their favor with a win at Philadelphia

  • While New Orleans doesn't improve their odds a whole lot they keep themselves from essentially losing the series since no one has come back in a best-of-7 series in the NBA down 0-3.

  • Chicago's exciting win only increases their odds by 7.79%, although a loss would've been devastating. In 5 tries no team without home court advantage has come back down 1-3 after leading 1-0.

  • Not statistically interesting, but Cleveland is the first team onto the next round

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